It is that time of year again to review my predictions from last year, and see how I did as a market Nostradamus, or is it a market Nostra-dumbass. Lets take a closer look at my predictions;
less volatility - land, labour, interest rates, commodities, bankster rug pulling, in all of this I think we will find less volatility than over the past two years. This doesnt mean low volatility, just lesser craziness than before.
I was largely correct here. The volatility in Calgary was fairly low, especially relative to other years. Supply was limited likely due to home owners having fewer good options to move or enjoying the last years of their cheap debt before they adjust upward to market rates.
infill home values flat by year end - I am going here with a prediction that prices of Calgary infill housing will go up and down a bit over the year, and end up fairly close to even. Too much rate hike headwind, which hasn't really percolated throughout the economy yet to foresee price gains, yet lots of demand and lower supply than average to set a price floor. plenty of price increases on inputs are pre-destined, unfortunately, making it expensive to build, also an apparent lack of good land listings on the MLS.
On this I was wrong. Or was I? It depends on what metric you choose. If you look at condos, the price and sales value was up a lot, same with townhouses. This is partly based on what quarter of the city you are looking at too. The stats package of the overall market showed a 10.4% increase according to CREB, while some townhouse and apartment prices are up around 20%. Yet the median price is only up 4.21%, which is much lower than the overall market suggests. In the future I need to be more specific on my predictions. One alarming stat is the inner city semi detached market has a large standing inventory. Yet another reason I truly detest that segment of the market. Also I recently found out that 61000 people moved to Alberta in q3 2023, that is a lot of demand for housing putting a strain on the market. For sure this accounts for price growth pressure, and we don’t know if this population influx is sustainable or not.
a year of finishing - fingers crossed this is correct. I need to finish seven houses, and start two, plus start another large rental project, and
Here I was correct for sure. I did finish 7 houses, spread over 3 projects, and a couple basement suites as well. I did start three single detached houses, one being a full Reno, and those are all close to complete. I didnt get to start another rental townhouse project however.
effectiveness of the inner city builders association - many upcoming complex and difficult negotiations need to take place, the association will draw from its strength of membership to tackle these.
Here I was correct. The association is doing great work, and as we approached the year end word spread that we are going to see a major change in one of the many really awful issues related to sidewalk repair and replacement. This could be the latest and most massive win for the builders!
Overall my predictions for 2023 were pretty good. It is also a year where the predictions I made had a fairly high degree of probability of actually taking place. I don’t think I’m going to do a 2024 prediction issue, as I truly don’t know what is going to happen. I am not even sure what I am going to build because I have been too busy to get my permits in order and likely will suffer from a development lag. Maybe my 2024 prediction is to take more much needed time off.